Since I posted about it awhile back, I've been working on cross-checking the albums I've collected as missing from Spotify with albums (or CDs) being sold on Ebay. This process is designed to give me a better idea of whether albums are truly missing (i.e. not available for purchase or streaming by consumers) or rather have just been restricted from streaming services because of artist or label wishes.
I've been surprised to find that there are more albums completely unavailable than I originally thought. Even with the limited number of artists and albums I have documented thus far, nearly half of the flagged missing albums are also not available in digital or even vinyl form on Ebay. There is always the possibility that individual collectors are holding these albums until they hit an optimal value at which point they will decide to put them on the market,and there is also the possibility that they are being saved as parts to priceless collections in which case the time it will take for them to become publicly available will be even longer. A third option is that the records have legitimately become obsolete and have been permanently lost, but statistically this is the least likely case.
Something I noticed about the absent from Spotify albums, that were available on Ebay was that there was a wide range of price per album. This could easily serve as a future indicator for rarity, or rather scarcity of a specific album. Excluding albums with uniqueness factors like red vinyl instead of black, or signatures by the artist, price variation as well as number of sellers can help to separate the albums at risk of extinction from those that are popular enough to have multiple sellers at relatively low prices despite not being available for streaming. It comes down to simple supply and demand, when supply is low and there is demand, prices will rise. The most expensive album I've encountered thus far was $300. To me that seems like a high price to pay, but I'm sure there will be more albums that I'll come across that are listed at even higher prices. Album collectors or possessors stand to gain the most from this so there is a tendency to hold onto their scarce possessions, at least until the market conditions are apt for selling rare, vintage folk albums. In that case, this hole in the collection I've been talking about may actually be at least partially superficial, controlled by album owners as well as labels and artists. The key for them is making sure the work isn't lost completely while trying to exact their profits. I'd say that's the biggest risk involved, especially if its a pattern that's been repeated by many people.
You should consider still another possibility - the albums are in some storage bin in the basement somewhere and the owner has only a vague notion that they are there. Out of sight, out of mind.
ReplyDeleteYou also did not mention the condition of the albums - scratches, his in the recording itself, etc. That matters, especially to audiophiles.
Finally, do not confuse list prices with transaction prices. One reason to list high is to give more room to negotiate on an actual price. What an economist would want to know is the "reservation price" of the seller - the lowest price the seller is willing to accept. One might conjecture there is some correlation between list prices and reservation prices, and there is when there are reasonably good substitutes for what is being sold. But for a one off, the correlation is probably nil.